MOVING ON NORTH KOREA – AT 1:43 P.M. ET:  We're focused on the weather, but the North Korean threat is severe and present.

There is a legitimate concern that the Norks may try another missile launch this weekend, to coincide with the celebration of their country's founding.  We haven't been given any public information on whether we have a specific policy should the launch occur.  However, we will be at UN Monday with a tough proposal.  From, of all places, the left-wing Guardian:   

The US will embark on an aggressive effort to tighten North Korea’s isolation on Monday with a call for an oil embargo and a partial naval blockade.

A draft United Nations resolution seen by the Observer would also block textile exports and the hiring of North Korean labour by foreign countries. The American delegation has called for the UN security council to debate the draft, in an attempt to force decisive action following last Sunday’s massive nuclear test of a bomb, Pyongyang’s sixth.

The most striking language in the resolution authorises naval vessels of any UN member state to inspect North Korean ships suspected of carrying banned cargo and to use “all necessary measures to carry out such inspections”. The implications of such a resolution would be far-reaching. Any attempt to board or divert a North Korean vessel could trigger an exchange of fire.

As well as banning any exports of “crude oil, condensates, refined petroleum products, and natural gas liquids” to North Korea, the draft resolution calls for a prohibition on the import of textiles and an end to the hiring of North Korean nationals, on the grounds that the regime uses the foreign currency earned “to support its prohibited nuclear and ballistic missile programmes”.
Both Russia and China employ cheap North Korean labour. In Russia they work in logging camps and construction sites, helping build a new football stadium in St Petersburg that will be used in the World Cup next year.

The US draft measure would also freeze the assets of Kim Jong-un and the top leadership in Pyongyang.

It is highly doubtful that Russia or China would agree to all that, or even most of it.  The general feeling in diplomatic circles is that the U.S. would have to compromise severely to get any resolution through.  That may mean a nothingburger, having no effect in the real world.  However, there may be alternatives:

The Trump administration claims to have a “plan B” if the UN resolution fails. The president has threatened to cut off trade with any country that continues to do business with North Korea. And on Wednesday, the US treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said documentation had been prepared to make that threat real if UN diplomacy failed.

COMMENT:  It reminds me of William Goldman's comment about Hollywood:  "Nobody knows anything."  We actually don't know what's in the minds of the North Korean leaders.  We speculate.  We calculate.  Some believe that the Norks just want to remain in power, and will do nothing that will jeopardize their political position.   Others argue that the regime, starting with Kim Jong-un at the top, is irrational and potentially genocidal, and must be attacked militarily and stripped of its nuclear weapons.

This is very dangerous, and an accident can happen.

September 9, 2017